The Ethiopia conflict, centered on the Tigray war that erupted in November 2020, has left deep scars across the Horn of Africa, threatening the region’s stability even after a peace deal was signed in November 2022. The conflict pitted the Ethiopian federal government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), with Amhara militias and Eritrea playing significant roles in the violence. Despite the Pretoria Agreement’s promise of peace, sporadic fighting continues in Tigray and beyond, particularly in the Amhara region, while the humanitarian crisis remains dire. The Ethiopia conflict has reshaped the Horn of Africa’s political landscape, raising questions about the durability of the peace deal and the region’s path forward.
Historical Context: The Roots of the Tigray War
The Ethiopia conflict has its origins in decades of political and ethnic tensions. The TPLF, a powerful political and military force, dominated Ethiopia’s government from 1991 to 2018 as part of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition. During this period, the TPLF was accused of marginalizing other ethnic groups, particularly the Amhara and Oromo, while consolidating power in Tigray. In 2018, Abiy Ahmed, an Oromo, became prime minister and introduced sweeping reforms, including dismantling the EPRDF and creating the Prosperity Party. The TPLF, feeling sidelined, retreated to Tigray and refused to join the new party, setting the stage for conflict. Tensions escalated in 2020 when the TPLF held regional elections in defiance of the federal government, which had postponed national elections due to COVID-19. On November 4, 2020, after an alleged TPLF attack on a federal military base in Tigray, Abiy launched a military offensive, marking the start of the Tigray war.
Tigray War: A Brutal Conflict Unfolds
The Tigray war quickly escalated into one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century. The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), supported by Amhara militias and Eritrean forces, launched a full-scale assault on Tigray, targeting TPLF strongholds. The TPLF, with its experienced fighters and deep knowledge of Tigray’s terrain, mounted a fierce resistance, leading to a protracted and bloody conflict. By mid-2021, Tigrayan forces had recaptured Mekelle, the regional capital, but the war continued with devastating consequences. Reports of massacres, sexual violence, and ethnic cleansing emerged, with all sides accused of atrocities. A 2022 study by Ghent University estimated that up to 600,000 people died during the conflict, either from direct violence or war-induced famine and disease. The blockade of Tigray by federal forces, which cut off food, medicine, and electricity, exacerbated the humanitarian crisis, with 90% of Tigray’s population facing acute food insecurity by late 2022.
Amhara Militias: Ethnic Tensions Fuel the Fire
Amhara militias, particularly the Fano, played a significant role in the Ethiopia conflict, aligning with the federal government to reclaim disputed territories in western Tigray that had been under TPLF control since the 1990s. These militias, driven by ethnic grievances and historical claims to the land, were implicated in widespread abuses, including the ethnic cleansing of Tigrayans in areas like Humera. In 2021, Amhara forces occupied western Tigray, displacing over 700,000 Tigrayans, according to Human Rights Watch. However, the Amhara region itself became a new flashpoint in 2023, as Fano militias turned against the federal government, accusing Abiy of betraying their interests by signing the peace deal with the TPLF. By March 2025, clashes between Amhara militias and federal forces have killed hundreds, with the violence threatening to spiral into a broader civil war within Ethiopia.
Eritrea’s Role: A Destabilizing Force
Eritrea’s involvement in the Tigray war has been a major complicating factor in the Ethiopia conflict. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, a longtime rival of the TPLF due to the 1998–2000 Ethio-Eritrean War, saw the conflict as an opportunity to weaken his adversary. Eritrean forces entered Tigray alongside the ENDF, participating in some of the war’s worst atrocities, including the Axum massacre in November 2020, where over 800 civilians were killed, according to Amnesty International. Eritrea’s troops were also accused of looting hospitals, destroying infrastructure, and committing widespread sexual violence. Despite the 2022 peace deal, Eritrea has been slow to withdraw its forces, with reports in early 2025 indicating that Eritrean troops remain in parts of northern Tigray, fueling tensions with both the TPLF and the federal government. Eritrea’s continued presence has undermined the peace process, raising fears of renewed conflict in the Horn of Africa.
Horn of Africa: A Region at Risk
The Ethiopia conflict has had profound implications for the Horn of Africa, a region already grappling with instability. Sudan, which shares a border with Tigray, has hosted over 60,000 Tigrayan refugees since 2020, but its own civil war has limited its capacity to provide support. Somalia, another neighbor, faces increased security risks as the Ethiopia conflict diverts attention and resources from regional counterterrorism efforts against al-Shabaab. Eritrea’s involvement has further strained relations with Ethiopia, despite their initial alliance against the TPLF, as Abiy’s government grows wary of Isaias’s intentions. The Horn of Africa’s strategic importance, particularly its proximity to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, has drawn international attention, with powers like the US, China, and Gulf states closely monitoring the situation. The conflict has also disrupted trade routes, exacerbating economic challenges across the region.
Peace Deal: A Fragile Hope
The November 2022 Pretoria Agreement, brokered by the African Union, was a landmark moment in the Ethiopia conflict, bringing a formal end to the Tigray war. The peace deal included provisions for a cessation of hostilities, the disarmament of TPLF fighters, the withdrawal of foreign forces (including Eritrea), and the restoration of humanitarian access to Tigray. By mid-2023, federal authorities had reestablished control over most of Tigray, and humanitarian aid began to flow, though at a trickle. However, the peace deal has faced significant challenges. The withdrawal of Eritrean forces has been incomplete, and Amhara militias have resisted handing over western Tigray, leading to continued skirmishes. In March 2025, renewed fighting in the Amhara region has raised fears that the peace deal could collapse entirely. The TPLF has accused the federal government of failing to address the needs of Tigrayan displaced persons, with over 1 million still unable to return home due to insecurity and lack of services.
Humanitarian Crisis: The Aftermath of War
The Tigray war has left a humanitarian crisis of staggering proportions. Over 2 million people remain displaced across Ethiopia, with 1.6 million in Tigray alone, according to the UN. The blockade during the war caused widespread famine, with 400,000 people facing catastrophic hunger at its peak in 2021. While the peace deal has allowed some aid to reach Tigray, the region’s infrastructure—hospitals, schools, and roads—remains in ruins. Sexual violence survivors, numbering in the tens of thousands, face ongoing trauma with limited access to support services. In the Amhara region, the new wave of violence has displaced an additional 500,000 people by early 2025, with reports of massacres and forced evictions. The Ethiopia conflict has also strained the country’s economy, with inflation soaring and foreign investment declining, exacerbating poverty for millions.
Global Implications and the Path Forward
The Ethiopia conflict has global ramifications, particularly given Ethiopia’s role as a key player in the Horn of Africa and a major contributor to UN peacekeeping missions. The war has weakened Ethiopia’s position as a regional stabilizer, creating opportunities for extremist groups to gain a foothold. The involvement of Eritrea and the tensions with Amhara militias have also raised concerns about a broader ethnic conflict that could destabilize the entire region. International efforts to support the peace deal have been led by the African Union, with the US and EU providing humanitarian aid and imposing sanctions on individuals responsible for atrocities. However, the lack of accountability for war crimes—particularly those committed by Eritrean forces—has undermined trust in the peace process. A lasting resolution will require addressing the root causes of the conflict, including ethnic grievances, political exclusion, and the legacy of authoritarianism.
The Ethiopia conflict, from the Tigray war to the unrest in Amhara, has left the Horn of Africa at a crossroads. The peace deal offers a glimmer of hope, but Eritrea’s shadow and the fragility of the agreement threaten to reignite the violence. Can Ethiopia heal its wounds, or will the scars of war deepen? Stay informed on this critical issue and its impact on the region and beyond.