The Sahel conflict, a sprawling and deadly crisis across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has evolved into one of the most volatile jihadist insurgencies in the world. Since its origins in the early 2010s, the conflict has been fueled by a toxic mix of political instability, ethnic tensions, and the rise of extremist groups like Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State Sahel Province (IS Sahel). Military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have further destabilized the region, while drone strikes and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) have become defining features of the violence. With millions displaced and entire communities living in fear, the Sahel insurgency is not just a regional crisis—it’s a global concern with far-reaching implications.
Historical Roots: How the Sahel Conflict Began
The Sahel conflict traces its origins to the 2011 collapse of Libya, which unleashed a flood of weapons and fighters into the region. In 2012, northern Mali became a hotspot when Tuareg rebels, under the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), allied with jihadist groups like al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) to seize control of the region. This uprising reignited long-standing grievances among the Tuareg, a historically marginalized ethnic group, and exposed the fragility of Mali’s government. The Malian army, frustrated by the government’s inability to suppress the rebellion, staged a coup in March 2012, deposing President Amadou Toumani Touré. The Mali coup created a power vacuum that allowed jihadist groups to consolidate their hold, marking the beginning of the broader Sahel insurgency. By 2015, the conflict had spilled over into Burkina Faso and Niger, driven by groups like JNIM and IS Sahel, which exploited local grievances over governance, poverty, and ethnic divides.
Jihadist Insurgency: A Growing Threat Across the Sahel
The jihadist insurgency in the Sahel has grown increasingly sophisticated and deadly. JNIM, an al-Qaeda-affiliated coalition formed in 2017, and IS Sahel, recognized as a formal Islamic State province in 2022, are the primary drivers of violence. In 2024, these groups launched a series of high-impact attacks across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, targeting military forces, militias, and civilians with ruthless efficiency. In Burkina Faso alone, over 900 people were killed in May 2024, according to posts on X, reflecting the staggering human toll. JNIM has expanded its operations into southern Niger’s Dosso region and even attacked the suburbs of Niamey, Niger’s capital, in late 2024, demonstrating its ability to exploit vulnerabilities in Sahelian capitals. Meanwhile, IS Sahel has consolidated control in Mali’s Menaka region, targeting ethnic groups like the Songhai and Tuareg, whom they accuse of collaborating with the state or rival militias.
The jihadist insurgency has also spread to coastal West African countries like Benin and Togo, raising fears of a broader regional destabilization. Both groups use brutal tactics to assert dominance, including sieges, kidnappings, and the enforcement of strict Sharia law in areas under their control. Women and girls face severe gender-based discrimination, while children are often recruited as fighters or subjected to grave violations, such as abductions and attacks on schools. The insurgency’s ability to adapt and expand, despite military pressure, underscores the failure of current counterterrorism strategies to address the root causes of the conflict, such as governance failures and ethnic tensions.
Mali Coup and the Rise of Military Juntas
The Sahel conflict has been exacerbated by a wave of military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, each driven by frustration over the governments’ inability to curb the jihadist insurgency. Mali experienced two coups in 2020 and 2021, followed by Burkina Faso in 2022, and Niger in 2023. These coups have ushered in military juntas that have adopted a hardline, militarized approach to counterinsurgency, often at the expense of civilian lives. In Mali, the junta’s decision to expel French troops and terminate the UN peacekeeping mission (MINUSMA) in 2023 left a security vacuum that jihadist groups quickly exploited. The junta has since partnered with Russian mercenaries, now rebranded as Africa Corps (formerly the Wagner Group), whose brutal tactics have been linked to widespread atrocities, including summary executions and sexual violence against civilians, particularly Tuareg and Fulani communities.
In Burkina Faso, the junta has mobilized the Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP), a state-backed militia, to fight jihadists. However, the VDP has been implicated in ethnic-based abuses, targeting Fulani communities and fueling militant recruitment among pastoralist groups. Niger’s junta, while initially more proactive in cross-border operations against IS Sahel, has struggled to contain the insurgency, with violence spiking in the Tillabéri region in late 2024. The juntas’ rejection of regional cooperation mechanisms, such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), has further isolated these countries, undermining efforts to address the Sahel conflict collectively.
Drone Strikes and IEDs: The Changing Face of Warfare
The Sahel conflict has seen a dramatic shift in combat tactics, with drone strikes and IEDs becoming central to the violence. Jihadist groups have increasingly relied on IEDs as a cheap and effective weapon, often referred to as the “poor man’s bomb.” These devices, made from locally sourced materials like ammonium nitrate and moped parts, are used in roadside ambushes and sieges to devastating effect. In Burkina Faso, IED attacks have surged since 2018, with 33 incidents recorded by 2019, claiming 133 lives, according to security researcher Roberto Sollazzo. A notable example is the November 2019 attack on a convoy of the Canadian mining company Semafo, where an IED killed 38 people. In Mali, IEDs caused 110 civilian casualties in the first half of 2019 alone, per a UN report, and the trend has continued into 2025, with 33 IED incidents reported by JNIM in April-May 2024, resulting in over 168 fatalities, as per the group’s own data.
On the other side, state forces have escalated their use of drone strikes to target jihadist strongholds. Mali and Burkina Faso have acquired Turkish drones, which have given them a tactical advantage, allowing for precise strikes against militant positions. Nigerien forces conducted drone strikes in November 2024, killing 10 IS Sahel militants near the border with Nigeria, according to local reports. However, these strikes often result in civilian casualties, fueling resentment and driving recruitment for jihadist groups. The use of drones by both state and non-state actors—jihadists have been reported to use FPV drones to drop IEDs in Burkina Faso, as noted in posts on X—has intensified the conflict, making it more lethal and unpredictable.
Humanitarian Crisis: A Region on the Brink
The Sahel conflict has triggered a humanitarian catastrophe of unprecedented scale. Over 2.8 million people are internally displaced across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, with Burkina Faso alone accounting for 2.1 million, according to the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect. The violence has forced entire communities to flee, with many living in overcrowded camps lacking access to food, water, and medical care. Famine is a growing threat, with 7.4 million people facing acute hunger in 2020, a number that has likely increased given the ongoing conflict. In Mali, JNIM’s blockade of Timbuktu in 2023 led to the deaths of over 60 civilians in a riverboat attack, highlighting the dire situation for those trapped in besieged areas.
Ethnic tensions, exacerbated by the conflict, have led to reprisal attacks and mass atrocities. In Burkina Faso, the 2019 Yirgou massacre saw pro-government militias kill between 49 and 210 Fulani civilians, according to varying reports, while a mass grave of over 180 civilians was discovered near Djibo in 2020, allegedly killed by government forces. These abuses have deepened mistrust between communities and the state, creating a vicious cycle of violence and displacement. The crackdown on civic space and human rights defenders in all three countries has also hindered independent monitoring of violations, leaving many atrocities unreported.
Regional and Global Implications
The Sahel conflict is not confined to Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—it has ripple effects across West Africa and beyond. The insurgency’s spread to coastal countries like Benin, Togo, and Ivory Coast threatens to destabilize the entire region, with JNIM and IS Sahel establishing a presence in border areas for tactical hideouts and procurement. The conflict has also strained regional cooperation, with the juntas of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger forming the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in 2023, withdrawing from ECOWAS and the G5 Sahel framework. This isolation has weakened collective security efforts, allowing jihadist groups to exploit the lack of coordination.
Globally, the Sahel conflict poses significant security and financial risks. The region accounted for 26% of global terrorist attacks in 2023, causing 47% of terrorism-related deaths, according to the Foreign Policy Research Institute. IS Sahel’s growth has elevated its role as a regional hub, raising concerns that it could eventually support global Islamic State activities, including attacks in Europe. The withdrawal of French troops and the UN mission from Mali has shifted the burden to local forces, which are often poorly equipped and lack the capacity to confront the insurgency effectively. Russia’s growing involvement, through the Africa Corps, has further complicated the situation, with its mercenaries accused of committing widespread abuses alongside Malian forces.
What Lies Ahead for the Sahel?
As of March 2025, the Sahel conflict shows no signs of abating. The jihadist insurgency continues to evolve, with groups like JNIM and IS Sahel adapting their tactics and expanding their reach. The reliance on drone strikes and IEDs has made the conflict more deadly, while the juntas’ militarized approach has failed to address the underlying drivers of the insurgency, such as governance failures, ethnic tensions, and economic inequality. Humanitarian aid is desperately needed, but access remains limited, with both state and non-state actors obstructing relief efforts. The international community must prioritize a coordinated response, focusing on both security and development, to prevent the Sahel from becoming a permanent haven for jihadist groups.
The Sahel conflict is a stark reminder of the consequences of neglect and division. Can Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger overcome the jihadist insurgency, or will the region descend further into chaos? Stay informed on this escalating crisis and its global ramifications.