The Nigeria conflict, driven by the relentless insurgency of Boko Haram and its splinter faction, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), continues to devastate northeastern Nigeria in 2025. These jihadist groups, rooted in the Lake Chad Basin region, have sustained their attacks on civilians and military targets, exacerbating a humanitarian crisis that has displaced millions and left communities in constant fear. The insurgency, which began in 2009, has evolved over the years, with Boko Haram and ISWAP adapting their tactics, exploiting local grievances like farmer-herder clashes, and expanding their influence across Nigeria, Chad, Niger, and Cameroon. This blog post delves into the latest developments in the Nigeria conflict, examining the dynamics of Boko Haram and ISWAP’s operations, their impact on the Lake Chad region, and the broader implications of farmer-herder clashes fueling instability in 2025.
The Evolution of the Nigeria Conflict: Boko Haram and ISWAP’s Rise
Boko Haram, officially known as Jama’at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da’wah wa’l-Jihad, emerged in 2002 under the leadership of Mohammed Yusuf in northeastern Nigeria. The group’s initial goal was to establish an Islamic state by rejecting Western education and influence—its name, often translated as “Western education is forbidden,” reflects this ideology. After Yusuf’s death in 2009 during a crackdown by Nigerian forces, Abubakar Shekau took over, steering Boko Haram toward a more violent insurgency. The group gained global infamy in 2014 with the abduction of 276 schoolgirls in Chibok, Borno State, sparking the “Bring Back Our Girls” movement. In 2015, Boko Haram pledged allegiance to the Islamic State, rebranding as ISWAP. However, internal divisions led to a split in 2016, with ISWAP emerging as a distinct faction under Abu Musab al-Barnawi, focusing on military targets and governance, while Shekau’s Boko Haram continued its indiscriminate attacks on civilians.
Shekau’s death in 2021, during a clash with ISWAP in the Sambisa Forest, marked a turning point. ISWAP absorbed many of Boko Haram’s fighters, but a faction under Ibrahim Bakura Doro, often referred to as JAS (Jama’tu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad), resisted and has since regained ground, particularly in the Lake Chad islands. By 2025, both Boko Haram and ISWAP remain formidable threats, with their rivalry and attacks intensifying the Nigeria conflict. The Lake Chad Basin, spanning Nigeria, Chad, Niger, and Cameroon, has become a stronghold for these groups, where they exploit porous borders, environmental degradation, and local grievances to sustain their insurgency.
Boko Haram and ISWAP Attacks in 2025: A Relentless Onslaught
In 2025, northeastern Nigeria continues to bear the brunt of Boko Haram and ISWAP’s violence. The year began with a series of devastating attacks, including a January assault in Borno State where Boko Haram killed over 40 farmers in the Dumba community near Baga, targeting those working in the Lake Chad region. This attack, reported by Amnesty International, underscores Boko Haram’s strategy of targeting rural communities to disrupt food security and instill fear. ISWAP, meanwhile, has focused on military targets, with a notable attack in March 2025, where over 100 Nigerian soldiers were reportedly killed in Borno, and a brigade commander injured, according to posts on X. These claims, while unverified, reflect the ongoing pressure on Nigerian forces, who are overstretched across multiple conflict zones.
ISWAP’s tactics in 2025 also include reprisal attacks on civilians who resist their control. In September 2024, ISWAP killed at least 170 people in Mafa village, Yobe State, after the community refused to pay levies, as reported by Human Rights Watch. This pattern of violence has continued into 2025, with both groups using suicide bombings, abductions, and ambushes to maintain their grip on the region. The Lake Chad Basin remains a critical battleground, with clashes between Boko Haram and ISWAP adding another layer of complexity. In early 2024, Boko Haram’s JAS faction seized several islands from ISWAP, but ISWAP has since regrouped, launching counteroffensives to reclaim lost territory, according to the Institute for Security Studies. These inter-jihadist conflicts have displaced more civilians, with the UN estimating that 2.4 million people remain uprooted in Nigeria’s northeast as of March 2023, a number likely higher in 2025 given the sustained violence.
The Role of Lake Chad in the Insurgency
The Lake Chad Basin is both a lifeline and a battleground for Boko Haram and ISWAP. The region’s islands and shores provide natural defenses, resources like fish and farmland, and a strategic base for launching attacks across Nigeria, Chad, Niger, and Cameroon. Environmental degradation, driven by climate change, has exacerbated the Nigeria conflict by shrinking the lake, intensifying competition over resources, and creating fertile ground for recruitment. Boko Haram and ISWAP exploit these conditions, offering loans and protection to locals while recruiting young men facing poverty and unemployment. The groups’ control over parts of the Lake Chad region allows them to tax communities, run parallel governance structures, and sustain their insurgency through kidnapping for ransom and looting.
The Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), comprising troops from Nigeria, Chad, Niger, Cameroon, and Benin, has been active in the region since 2015, launching operations like “Lake Sanity” to flush out insurgents. In April 2024, the MNJTF reported killing 140 Boko Haram fighters and arresting 57 others, but the groups’ resilience highlights the challenges of securing the Lake Chad Basin. Insufficient funding, disputes over resource allocation, and limited coordination among member states have hampered the MNJTF’s effectiveness, allowing Boko Haram and ISWAP to regroup and continue their attacks in 2025.
Farmer-Herder Clashes: A Parallel Crisis Fueling Instability
While Boko Haram and ISWAP dominate headlines, farmer-herder clashes in Nigeria’s Northcentral and Northwest regions have compounded the Nigeria conflict, creating a multi-front crisis. These clashes, rooted in competition over land and water, have escalated in recent years due to climate change, population growth, and the proliferation of arms. In 2024, the International Organization for Migration reported that over 1.3 million people were displaced in these regions, up from 1.1 million in December 2023, a trend likely continuing into 2025. A deadly Christmas Day assault in Plateau State in 2023, attributed to herders, killed about 140 people, and similar violence persisted into 2024, with 30 killed in Mangu in January alone.
Farmer-herder clashes intersect with the insurgency in complex ways. Boko Haram and ISWAP exploit these tensions, recruiting disaffected herders and using the chaos to expand their operations. In the Northwest, bandit groups—some of whom have aligned with jihadists like Ansaru, an Al Qaeda-backed splinter of Boko Haram—have further destabilized the region through kidnappings and raids. In March 2024, nearly 400 people were kidnapped in Kaduna State, including 287 schoolchildren, highlighting the scale of insecurity. These overlapping conflicts have stretched Nigeria’s security forces thin, making it harder to combat the insurgency in the northeast while addressing farmer-herder clashes elsewhere.
Humanitarian and Security Implications in 2025
The Nigeria conflict, driven by Boko Haram, ISWAP, and farmer-herder clashes, has created a dire humanitarian crisis in 2025. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs estimates that 8.3 million people, mostly women and children, require urgent assistance, a figure likely unchanged or worsened by the ongoing violence. Displacement camps are overcrowded, and host communities struggle to support newcomers. A USAID funding freeze in early 2025 has further strained humanitarian efforts, leading to shortages in healthcare, nutrition programs, and shelter services, particularly in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states, as reported by ACAPS.
On the security front, the Nigerian military faces significant challenges. Allegations of human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings and a secret abortion program targeting women impregnated by Boko Haram fighters, have damaged its credibility, as noted in a 2020 International Criminal Court preliminary examination. Meanwhile, posts on X in March 2025 express public frustration over the government’s response to ISWAP’s attacks, with some claiming soldiers were publicly executed on video without a strong reaction from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. While these claims are unverified, they reflect growing discontent with the government’s handling of the insurgency.
What Lies Ahead for Nigeria and the Lake Chad Region?
The Nigeria conflict in 2025 shows no signs of abating, with Boko Haram and ISWAP continuing to target civilians and military forces in northeastern Nigeria and the Lake Chad Basin. The inter-jihadist rivalry, while weakening both groups, has not diminished their overall threat, as they adapt and exploit local grievances like farmer-herder clashes to sustain their insurgency. For the Nigerian government and its regional partners, a multi-pronged approach is essential. Military operations must be paired with efforts to address root causes, such as poverty, unemployment, and environmental degradation in the Lake Chad region. Strengthening regional cooperation through the MNJTF, improving humanitarian access, and investing in defection programs for former fighters could help mitigate the crisis.
Moreover, addressing farmer-herder clashes requires dialogue, land-use reforms, and climate adaptation strategies to reduce resource competition. Without a holistic strategy, the Nigeria conflict risks spilling further across the Lake Chad Basin, threatening regional stability and deepening the suffering of millions. As Boko Haram and ISWAP sustain their attacks in 2025, the path to peace remains fraught, but concerted action could pave the way for a more secure future.
Stay tuned for updates on the Nigeria conflict, Boko Haram, ISWAP, and the evolving dynamics in the Lake Chad region.