The Somalia conflict, a decades-long struggle that has left the nation fractured and vulnerable, continues to devastate the Horn of Africa as of March 2025. At the heart of the Somalia conflict is the jihadist group Al-Shabaab, which has waged a relentless insurgency against the Somali government and its allies, including the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Mogadishu, the capital, remains a focal point of violence, with frequent jihadist attacks targeting civilians, government officials, and security forces. Beyond the land-based conflict, piracy off Somalia’s coast has seen a resurgence, adding another layer of instability to an already volatile situation. The Somalia conflict has not only crippled the nation’s development but also poses a significant threat to regional and global security, demanding urgent international attention.
of Africa as of March 2025. At the heart of the Somalia conflict is the jihadist group Al-Shabaab, which has waged a relentless insurgency against the Somali government and its allies, including the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Mogadishu, the capital, remains a focal point of violence, with frequent jihadist attacks targeting civilians, government officials, and security forces. Beyond the land-based conflict, piracy off Somalia’s coast has seen a resurgence, adding another layer of instability to an already volatile situation. The Somalia conflict has not only crippled the nation’s development but also poses a significant threat to regional and global security, demanding urgent international attention.
Historical Context: A Nation in Turmoil
The Somalia conflict traces its roots to the collapse of the central government in 1991, following the overthrow of dictator Siad Barre. The ensuing power vacuum led to clan-based warfare, famine, and the rise of warlords, plunging the country into chaos. In the early 2000s, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) briefly brought stability to parts of southern Somalia, but its strict interpretation of Sharia law alarmed neighboring countries and the West. In 2006, Ethiopia, backed by the US, invaded Somalia to dismantle the ICU, giving rise to Al-Shabaab, a militant offshoot that vowed to expel foreign forces and establish an Islamic state. By 2009, Al-Shabaab controlled large swathes of southern Somalia, including parts of Mogadishu, until AMISOM forces, deployed in 2007, began pushing them back. Despite these efforts, Al-Shabaab has remained a formidable force, exploiting Somalia’s weak governance, widespread poverty, and clan divisions to sustain its insurgency.
Al-Shabaab: A Persistent Jihadist Threat
Al-Shabaab, an Al-Qaeda affiliate, is the primary driver of the Somalia conflict, responsible for some of the deadliest jihadist attacks in the region. The group has carried out suicide bombings, assassinations, and large-scale assaults, targeting both military and civilian targets. In Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab has struck with devastating frequency. A notable attack in October 2022 at the education ministry killed over 100 people, and in January 2025, a car bomb near a busy market in Mogadishu claimed 35 lives, according to local reports. Al-Shabaab’s tactics include improvised explosive devices (IEDs), mortar attacks, and ambushes, often targeting AMISOM convoys and Somali security forces. The group also maintains a strong presence in rural areas, extorting taxes from local communities and using these funds to finance its operations, which are estimated to generate $100 million annually, per a 2023 UN report.
Beyond Somalia, Al-Shabaab has expanded its reach, launching attacks in Kenya, including the 2013 Westgate Mall siege and the 2019 DusitD2 hotel attack in Nairobi. In 2024, the group intensified cross-border raids into Kenya’s Lamu County, killing dozens and displacing thousands. Al-Shabaab’s ability to adapt, recruit, and exploit local grievances—such as government corruption and marginalization of certain clans—has made it a resilient force, despite years of counterterrorism efforts. The group’s propaganda, disseminated through radio stations and online platforms, continues to attract young recruits, particularly in areas where the government has little presence.
AMISOM and the Transition to AUSSOM: A Shifting Security Landscape
The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), deployed since 2007, has been a critical force in the Somalia conflict, supporting the Somali government against Al-Shabaab. Comprising troops from countries like Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, and Ethiopia, AMISOM has helped secure Mogadishu and other key towns, enabling the establishment of a federal government in 2012. However, the mission has faced significant challenges, including funding shortages, coordination issues, and accusations of civilian harm. In 2022, AMISOM began transitioning to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), with a mandate to gradually hand over security responsibilities to Somali forces by the end of 2024. This transition was completed in January 2025, with ATMIS rebranded as the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), a smaller force focused on mentoring and supporting Somali troops.
The transition has been fraught with difficulties. Somali security forces, plagued by corruption, clan rivalries, and inadequate training, have struggled to fill the gap left by AMISOM’s drawdown. In March 2025, Al-Shabaab overran a military base in Lower Shabelle, killing 40 Somali soldiers just weeks after AUSSOM’s deployment, highlighting the fragility of the security handover. AUSSOM’s reduced troop numbers—down to 10,000 from ATMIS’s peak of 22,000—have raised concerns about its ability to counter Al-Shabaab’s growing boldness. The Somalia conflict has also strained relations among contributing countries, with Ethiopia’s involvement complicated by its own domestic challenges, including the Tigray war and tensions with Somalia over the Somaliland port deal.
Mogadishu: A City Under Siege
Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital and largest city, remains the epicenter of the Somalia conflict, a battleground where the government, AMISOM/AUSSOM, and Al-Shabaab vie for control. Despite efforts to rebuild the city, with new hotels, markets, and infrastructure emerging in recent years, Mogadishu is still a city under siege. Al-Shabaab’s jihadist attacks have targeted government buildings, hotels, and public spaces, creating a pervasive sense of insecurity. In February 2025, a suicide bombing at a checkpoint near the presidential palace killed 15 people, including three soldiers, underscoring the group’s ability to strike at the heart of the government. The city’s residents live in constant fear, with checkpoints, blast walls, and armed patrols a daily reality. The violence has also disrupted humanitarian efforts, with aid workers often targeted by Al-Shabaab, further exacerbating the city’s challenges.
Jihadist Attacks: A Tactic of Terror
Jihadist attacks by Al-Shabaab have been a defining feature of the Somalia conflict, aimed at undermining the government’s legitimacy and instilling fear. The group’s attacks are often meticulously planned, targeting high-profile locations to maximize casualties and media attention. In addition to bombings, Al-Shabaab has carried out complex assaults on military bases, such as the January 2025 attack on an AUSSOM base in Baidoa, which killed 20 soldiers and allowed the group to seize weapons and vehicles. The group has also targeted civilians accused of collaborating with the government, executing them in public to send a message. Al-Shabaab’s use of social media to claim responsibility and spread propaganda has amplified its reach, with videos of attacks often circulating on platforms like Telegram and X, drawing international condemnation but also attracting new recruits.
Piracy: A Resurgent Threat
While the Somalia conflict is primarily land-based, piracy off the country’s coast has seen a troubling resurgence, adding another dimension to the crisis. In the late 2000s, Somali piracy was a global concern, with pirates hijacking ships in the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean, costing the global economy billions. International naval patrols, including the EU’s Operation Atalanta, reduced piracy incidents by 2015, but the underlying drivers—poverty, lack of governance, and insecurity—were never addressed. Since 2023, piracy has surged again, fueled by the chaos of the Somalia conflict and Al-Shabaab’s influence over coastal communities. In 2024, pirates hijacked 12 vessels, including a UAE-flagged oil tanker, demanding ransoms of up to $5 million, according to the International Maritime Bureau. Al-Shabaab has been linked to some piracy operations, taxing pirate groups in exchange for protection, further blurring the lines between insurgency and criminality.
Humanitarian Crisis: The Human Toll
The Somalia conflict has unleashed a humanitarian crisis of staggering proportions. Over 3.8 million Somalis are internally displaced as of March 2025, with 1.2 million in Mogadishu alone, living in overcrowded camps with limited access to food, water, and healthcare. The violence, combined with recurring droughts and floods, has pushed 6.9 million people—nearly half the population—into acute food insecurity, according to the UN. Al-Shabaab’s control over rural areas has restricted humanitarian access, with the group often taxing aid convoys or attacking aid workers. In 2024, 15 aid workers were killed in Somalia, the highest toll in a decade. The conflict has also exacerbated gender-based violence, with women and girls in displacement camps facing high rates of sexual assault, often perpetrated by militias or even security forces.
Regional and Global Implications
The Somalia conflict has far-reaching implications for the Horn of Africa and beyond. Al-Shabaab’s cross-border attacks have destabilized Kenya and Ethiopia, straining regional cooperation. The group’s ties to Al-Qaeda also pose a global security threat, with fears that it could inspire or support attacks in the West. The resurgence of piracy threatens international shipping lanes, particularly in the Gulf of Aden, a critical route for global trade. The Somalia conflict has also complicated geopolitical dynamics in the region, with Turkey, Qatar, and the UAE vying for influence through military and economic support to the Somali government, while the US maintains a small military presence, conducting drone strikes against Al-Shabaab leaders. In 2024, US airstrikes killed 30 Al-Shabaab militants, but these operations have also caused civilian casualties, fueling anti-Western sentiment.
Path Forward: Challenges and Opportunities
Ending the Somalia conflict requires addressing both the security and governance challenges that sustain Al-Shabaab. The Somali government, under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has launched a military offensive against the group since 2022, reclaiming some territory with the support of clan militias and AUSSOM. However, these gains are fragile, and the government’s inability to provide services or address clan grievances has limited its legitimacy. Rebuilding the Somali security forces, improving governance, and tackling corruption are critical steps, but they require sustained international support. The resurgence of piracy also demands a renewed focus on coastal security and economic development to provide alternatives for communities vulnerable to criminal networks. The international community must balance counterterrorism efforts with humanitarian aid, ensuring that the needs of Somalia’s most vulnerable are not overlooked.
The Somalia conflict, with Mogadishu at its heart, is a stark reminder of the consequences of state failure and extremism. Al-Shabaab, AMISOM/AUSSOM, jihadist attacks, and piracy continue to shape a nation struggling to find peace. Can Somalia break free from this cycle of violence, or will it remain a battleground for years to come? Stay informed on this critical issue and its impact on the Horn of Africa and beyond.