The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is one of the most enduring and complex disputes in the post-Soviet world. Rooted in historical grievances, ethnic rivalries, and competing territorial claims, this conflict has seen multiple wars, fragile ceasefires, and shifting international alliances. Azerbaijan’s decisive victory in 2023, when it reclaimed full control of Nagorno-Karabakh after a lightning offensive, was thought to mark a turning point. Yet, as we move into April 2025, the region is once again ablaze with tension. Fresh border clashes along the Armenia-Azerbaijan frontier, disputes over Russia’s peacekeeping mission, and Turkey’s unwavering support for Azerbaijan have reignited global interest in this volatile corner of the South Caucasus. In this comprehensive blog post, we’ll dive deep into the latest developments in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, exploring the historical backdrop of Nagorno-Karabakh, the triggers behind the 2025 border clashes, the diminishing role of Russia’s peacekeepers, and Turkey’s strategic influence in reshaping the region’s future.
A Detailed History of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
To understand the current state of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, we must first revisit its origins. Nagorno-Karabakh, a rugged enclave nestled in the Lesser Caucasus mountains, is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. However, its population has historically been overwhelmingly ethnic Armenian, a fact that has fueled decades of contention. The roots of the modern conflict trace back to the early 20th century when the Soviet Union arbitrarily drew borders that placed Nagorno-Karabakh within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic, despite its Armenian majority. As the Soviet Union began to disintegrate in the late 1980s, ethnic tensions boiled over, leading to the First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988–1994). That war ended with Armenia seizing control of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent Azerbaijani districts, displacing hundreds of thousands of Azeris and creating a self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh, unrecognized by the international community.
For over two decades, an uneasy ceasefire held, punctuated by occasional skirmishes. Then, in September 2020, the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War erupted. Azerbaijan, bolstered by advanced Turkish drones and military technology, reclaimed much of the lost territory in a 44-day campaign. Russia brokered a ceasefire that deployed peacekeepers to the region, but the truce was short-lived. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a final offensive, capturing the entirety of Nagorno-Karabakh in just 24 hours. Over 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled to Armenia, effectively ending the enclave’s decades-long de facto independence. While Azerbaijan celebrated its triumph, the victory sowed the seeds for new tensions, which have now erupted into the border clashes of 2025.
Border Clashes in 2025: Why the Fighting Continues
Fast forward to April 2025, and the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict is far from resolved. Despite a peace agreement signed in March 2025, which aimed to stabilize the region and finalize border demarcations, violence has flared anew. Reports of border clashes emerged in early April, with both sides exchanging artillery fire and accusing each other of violating the ceasefire. Armenia claims Azerbaijan is encroaching on its sovereign territory, particularly near the Syunik Province, which borders Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave. Azerbaijan, in turn, alleges that Armenian forces are launching provocations to destabilize its reconstruction efforts in the reclaimed territories.
A key sticking point in these border clashes is Azerbaijan’s demand for the Zangezur Corridor—a proposed transportation link through Armenian territory that would connect mainland Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and, by extension, Turkey. Armenia views this as a threat to its sovereignty, fearing it could become a militarized zone under Azerbaijan’s control. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan insists the corridor was part of the 2020 ceasefire agreement and accuses Armenia of stalling negotiations. The clashes, though limited in scope so far, underscore the fragility of the peace process and the deep mistrust that persists between the two nations. International observers warn that without a clear resolution to these disputes, Nagorno-Karabakh and its surrounding borders could remain a flashpoint for years to come.
Russia Peacekeepers: From Mediators to Bystanders?
Russia has long positioned itself as the primary arbiter in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, leveraging its historical ties to both nations and its role as a regional power broker. Following the 2020 war, Moscow deployed nearly 2,000 peacekeepers to Nagorno-Karabakh to oversee the ceasefire and ensure the safety of remaining Armenian civilians. Initially, this presence was hailed as a stabilizing force, with Russian troops patrolling key roads like the Lachin Corridor, the only lifeline connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. However, their mandate has been repeatedly tested—and found wanting.
In 2023, Russia’s peacekeepers stood by as Azerbaijan launched its offensive, unable or unwilling to intervene. Armenian leaders, including Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, accused Moscow of abandoning its ally, pointing to Russia’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine as a reason for its inaction. By 2025, the situation has deteriorated further. Border clashes have occurred within sight of Russian outposts, yet peacekeepers have failed to de-escalate the violence. Local Armenian communities, many of whom fled Nagorno-Karabakh after 2023, express frustration at what they see as Russia’s indifference. Analysts suggest that Russia’s declining influence in the South Caucasus is a byproduct of its overstretched military and economic resources, leaving the peacekeeping mission increasingly symbolic rather than effective. As Armenia pivots toward Western partners like the European Union and the United States, Russia’s role in Nagorno-Karabakh—and the broader Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict—hangs in the balance.
Turkey’s Support: Azerbaijan’s Strategic Ally
If Russia’s influence is waning, Turkey’s is undeniably on the rise. Ankara’s support for Azerbaijan has been a game-changer in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, tilting the balance decisively in Baku’s favor. This alliance, rooted in shared Turkic identity and mutual economic interests, became evident during the 2020 war, when Turkey supplied Azerbaijan with Bayraktar TB2 drones that devastated Armenian defenses. In 2023, Turkey’s diplomatic backing and military expertise helped Azerbaijan secure its victory in Nagorno-Karabakh. Today, in 2025, Turkey remains a steadfast ally, pushing for regional integration projects that align with Azerbaijan’s ambitions.
One such project is the Zangezur Corridor, which Turkey sees as a critical link in its vision of a pan-Turkic trade route stretching from Central Asia to Europe. Beyond military and economic support, Turkey has amplified Azerbaijan’s voice on the international stage, countering Armenia’s narrative of victimhood with claims of historical justice for displaced Azeris. This partnership has not only strengthened Azerbaijan’s position in Nagorno-Karabakh but also elevated Turkey’s stature as a regional power, often putting it at odds with Russia and Armenia. For Armenia, Turkey’s involvement is a bitter pill, given the unresolved legacy of the 1915 Armenian Genocide, which Ankara denies. As border clashes continue in 2025, Turkey’s support ensures that Azerbaijan holds a strong hand, complicating efforts at reconciliation.
The Road Ahead for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh
As of April 2025, the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict remains a multifaceted crisis with no easy resolution in sight. Azerbaijan is moving forward with its plans to repopulate Nagorno-Karabakh, resettling displaced Azeris and investing billions in infrastructure projects like roads, schools, and energy hubs. President Ilham Aliyev has hailed this as a new era for the region, framing it as a triumph of national sovereignty. Yet, the ongoing border clashes suggest that Azerbaijan’s victory has not brought the peace it promised. Armenia, meanwhile, faces an existential challenge. The loss of Nagorno-Karabakh has deepened its sense of isolation, strained its alliance with Russia, and sparked domestic unrest over Pashinyan’s leadership.
The roles of Russia’s peacekeepers and Turkey’s support will be decisive in shaping the next chapter of this conflict. For Russia, restoring credibility as a mediator will require more than token gestures—it must address the grievances of both Armenia and Azerbaijan while balancing its own strategic interests. For Turkey, continued backing of Azerbaijan could solidify its foothold in the Caucasus, but at the risk of alienating other regional players. International organizations like the United Nations and the OSCE Minsk Group, once central to peace talks, have been sidelined, leaving diplomacy in limbo.
Ultimately, lasting peace in Nagorno-Karabakh will depend on compromise. Border demarcation must be finalized through transparent negotiations, humanitarian access ensured for displaced populations, and economic incentives offered to foster cooperation rather than confrontation. Until then, the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict—and the specter of border clashes—will loom large over the South Caucasus, a region where history, identity, and geopolitics collide with unrelenting force.
Stay tuned to our blog for the latest updates on Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia’s peacekeepers, Turkey’s influence, and the evolving dynamics of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict in 2025 and beyond.